Showing posts with label $700 billion bailout. Show all posts
Showing posts with label $700 billion bailout. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Goldman to Raise Capital, With $5 Billion From Buffett

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/business/24goldman.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Published: September 23, 2008

Warren E. Buffett, the country’s most famous investor and one of the world’s richest men, announced on Tuesday that he would invest $5 billion in Goldman Sachs, the embattled Wall Street titan, in a move that could bolster confidence in the financial markets.

Statement From Goldman Sachs (goldmansachs.com)

Until now, Mr. Buffett, who has navigated the stock market with legendary prowess, has largely refrained from investing in the stricken financial industry, saying repeatedly that things could get worse.

Thousands of people on and off Wall Street follow Mr. Buffett’s moves, so his decision to invest in Goldman immediately heartened investors. After falling nearly 1.5 percent during the day, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index erased half its loss in after-hours trading Tuesday evening on news of the investment.

“Buffett is saying he’s confident,” said Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Company.

Mr. Buffett’s conglomerate, Berkshire Hathaway, unveiled the move only days after Goldman, long the premier investment house on Wall Street, embarked on a radical plan to transform itself into a traditional bank to ensure its survival. Goldman, which examined various options over the last week as its shares tumbled and some clients abandoned the firm, also said Tuesday it would sell at least $2.5 billion of common stock to the public.

Since credit markets tightened more than a year ago, Mr. Buffett had stayed his hand even as other investors, including government-controlled funds from the Middle East and Asia, poured money into American financial companies like Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, only to see their investments plunge in value.

Such wariness is a hallmark of Mr. Buffett’s investing style, and many on Wall Street have wondered when he might jump in. Over the last four decades, he has built Berkshire, which is based in Omaha, into one of the world’s largest and most successful insurers. Along the way, he has also assembled a stable of holdings in widely known companies like Coca-Cola and the Washington Post Company, and more recently has increased his stakes in energy concerns and railroads.

Mr. Buffett, who plans to donate the vast majority of his fortune to charity, is known for his folksy guidelines for proper corporate governance and his investment expertise. His annual meetings are fondly referred to as the Woodstock of American capitalism by his many acolytes.

But Mr. Buffett, 78, has also learned from past mistakes in the financial sector. For instance, Berkshire’s 1998 acquisition of General Re, the insurance company, was marred by a portfolio of complex derivative securities and state and federal investigations into reinsurance policies written by the company. Salomon Brothers, the Wall Street firm that Mr. Buffett was pressed by the government to lead in the early 1990s amid a trading scandal, was another taxing experience.

But Goldman is a classic Buffett play: It is a blue-chip institution, with a premier brand and long, successful history, that has been beaten down in the stock market, and one that he is investing in on very favorable terms. Goldman’s share price has fallen nearly 42 percent this year, and reached a peak of $247.92 less than a year ago.

Mr. Buffett, in the statement, called Goldman Sachs an exceptional institution.

“It has an unrivaled global franchise,” Mr. Buffett said, “a proven and deep management team and the intellectual and financial capital to continue its track record of outperformance.”

Still, Mr. Buffett is not taking big risks based on the structure of the investment.

Berkshire Hathaway will receive perpetual preferred shares in Goldman, which will pay a 10 annual percent dividend, or $500 million a year. Those dividends take precedence over other payments to common shareholders. Goldman has the right to buy back the shares at any time for premium of 10 percent.

In addition, Berkshire Hathaway will receive warrants to buy $5 billion in common stock at a strike price of $115 a share, which can be used at any time in a five-year period. Those warrants are already in the money: Goldman shares closed Tuesday at $125.05, up $4.27, and rose to $134.75 in after-hours trading after Mr. Buffett’s investment was announced.

While Mr. Buffett’s risks may be limited, he is investing in Goldman at a time when many fear the bank’s long-run of soaring profits may be coming to an end. As a federally regulated bank holding company, Goldman may not be able to take the kind of risks that have yielded profits and bonuses that defined Wall Street’s latest Golden Age.

Goldman’s move came a day after a rival investment bank, Morgan Stanley, raised about $8 billion by selling up to a 20 percent stake to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Japan’s largest commercial bank. Goldman was widely expected to follow suit.

“We are pleased that given our longstanding relationship, Warren Buffett, arguably the world’s most admired and successful investor, has decided to make such a significant investment in Goldman Sachs. We view it as a strong validation of our client franchise and future prospects,” the chief executive of Goldman, Lloyd C. Blankfein, said in the statement. “This investment will further bolster our strong capitalization and liquidity position.”

For Mr. Buffett, the move is a long-awaited investment in a big financial firm. Though he has struck several deals since the credit market tightened — and in two deals actually provided financing — he has not invested heavily in the financial services sector. He has been approached several times, including by the American International Group, the giant insurance company the government has since rescued.

Goldman, Morgan Stanley Buy Time for Deals by Becoming Banks

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aXdM4uWfeQDY&refer=news

By Christine Harper

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley have won a respite from investor panic by transforming themselves into bank holding companies.

The change in status allows the last two major independent investment banks on Wall Street to take advantage of different accounting rules, gives them more access to federal funds and buys them time to stabilize their funding base by acquiring deposits, analysts said.

``The move appears aimed at improving market confidence but does not, in our view, signal a major change in the business model,'' Richard Staite, an analyst at Atlantic Equities in London, wrote in a note to investors yesterday. ``The move provides Goldman with time to continue the process of de-risking itself to a level deemed suitable by the market.''

Instead of carrying all of their loans, bonds, stocks and other assets at market value, as investment banks are required to do, the two New York-based firms can now avoid further writedowns by moving some assets into their banking units. They will also gain the ability to borrow from the Federal Reserve indefinitely, an improvement over the primary-dealer credit facility that is scheduled to expire in January.

Now it's up to the banks to raise enough capital and attract enough stable, low-cost deposits to reassure investors that market gyrations won't drive them out of business. Morgan Stanley said yesterday that it plans to sellas much as 20 percent of the firm to Tokyo-based Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. for $8.4 billion. Goldman has no immediate plans to raise capital, although it may decide to if it finds attractive investment opportunities, spokesman Lucas van Praag said yesterday.

Deposit Bases

The S&P 500 Financials Index dropped 8.5 percent yesterday as investors lost confidence that a proposed U.S. $700 billion government bailout would solve the industry's bad-debt problem. After dropping 27 percent last week, Morgan Stanley's stock was little changed yesterday. Goldman's shares, which fell 16 percent last week, dropped 7 percent.

The deposit bases of Goldman and Morgan Stanley, at $20 billion and $36 billion respectively, are much smaller than those of their largest bank competitors, according to David Hendler, an analyst at CreditSights Inc. in New York.

Morgan Stanley's deposits amounted to about 4 percent of the firm's liabilities at the end of August, while Goldman's amounted to 2 percent of liabilities, Hendler wrote in a note to investors yesterday. At larger banks, deposits typically account for between 40 percent and 60 percent of liabilities, he wrote.

``We cannot rule out that these companies could pursue bank acquisitions in order to increase their deposit funding more in- line with a typical bank,'' Hendler wrote. Yet their depressed stock prices may make Goldman and Morgan Stanley reluctant to enter deals ``until some premium has been restored.''

`Marketplace Certainty'

Both firms issued statements after the Fed approved their applications that stressed how the change would improve their image with investors. ``We understand that the market views oversight by the Federal Reserve and the ability to source insured bank deposits as providing a greater degree of safety and soundness,'' Goldman said in a statement on Sept. 21. John Mack, Morgan Stanley's chairman and chief executive officer, said the change ``offers the marketplace certainty about the strength of our financial position and our access to funding.''

Goldman Sachs, now the fourth-largest U.S. bank by market value, is more interested in buying deposits than in buying entire banks, according to a person familiar with the firm's thinking. The firm sees opportunities to buy deposits in the wholesale market and also to buy deposits of failed institutions, such as IndyMac Bancorp Inc., that are under the control of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the person said.

Reducing Leverage

Morgan Stanley said it plans to ``pursue initiatives to expand the retail banking services it offers its retail clients and build a stable base of core deposits.''

In return for the advantages accorded by their new status, Goldman and Morgan Stanley won't have to change much about the way they operate. Neither firm is being required to dispose of non-financial assets, such as commodities or stakes in companies, that banks normally are prohibited from owning, for at least two years, according to the Federal Reserve orders.

Efforts by the companies to reduce their so-called leverage, or ratio of assets to shareholder equity, are more about trying to reassure markets than to meet any requirements imposed by the Fed. Instead of monitoring gross leverage, the Fed looks at firms' Tier 1 capital ratios, which measure capital requirements based on the riskiness of assets. Both firms exceed the 6 percent Tier 1 capital requirement to be deemed ``well capitalized.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Harper in New York atcharper@bloomberg.net.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Paulson Debt Plan May Benefit Mostly Goldman, Morgan

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUj_9.k13q7s&refer=home
By Jody Shenn
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley may be among the biggest beneficiaries of the $700 billion U.S. plan to buy assets from financial companies while many banks see limited aid, according to Bank of America Corp.
``Its benefits, in its current form, will be largely limited to investment banks and other banks that have aggressively written down the value of their holdings and have already recognized the attendant capital impairment,'' Jeffrey Rosenberg, Bank of America's head of credit strategy research, wrote in a report dated yesterday, without identifying particular banks.
Many banks may not participate in the Troubled Asset Relief Program because they haven't had to write down as much assets under accounting rules, meaning decisions to sell into the program would cause them to lose capital, Rosenberg wrote. Investment banks operate ``under a mark-to-market accounting model while commercial banks hold assets at cost until realizing a loss (or until they reasonably expect one),'' he wrote.
Rosenberg assumed the government will use a reverse auction in which banks submit the lowest prices they are willing to sell certain types of assets for and then the government buys the cheapest ones, with the goal of ``protecting the taxpayers,'' the report said.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's push for the program, now considered by lawmakers, is designed to remove ``illiquid assets'' clogging the financial system, reverse declining asset values and prevent the freezing of lending for U.S. financial firms, companies and consumers.
The intervention into markets would be the broadest since at least the Great Depression. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, a Democrat from Massachusetts, said today lawmakers and Paulson narrowed differences on the plan.
Japan's Failure
In the 1990s, a Japanese government effort to buy troubled assets from banks to free up lending failed because sellers weren't willing to accept the prices offered, said L. William Seidman, a former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. He said that wasn't a problem he had as chairman of the Resolution Trust Corp. in the U.S., which sold off failed lenders' assets after the savings-and-loan crisis of the 1980s.
``If you're talking about institutions that haven't failed, then you have the question of whether they want to sell at a low price, particularly if that price depletes their capital,'' Seidman said in a telephone interview today.
``In Japan, we did all kinds of things, trying to have a mediator who would set a price and other kinds of methods to get around that,'' he added. ``It never really got done, so it was not successful, but here we probably have a more urgent need for more institutions to do something.''
`Hasten the Pace'
While Goldman and Morgan Stanley, both based in New York, were yesterday granted permission to transform themselves into bank holding companies, the companies so far have operated mostly under investment-bank accounting rules, logging almost $21 billion of asset writedowns and credit losses. Paulson is a former chairman and chief executive officer of Goldman.
Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America, which has reported $21 billion of losses, is seeking to buy New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co., which has had $52.2 billion in losses.
Even without sales by commercial banks and savings-and-loans under the program, the companies may be harmed as the disclosure of prices paid in the troubled-debt auctions force them to ``hasten the pace'' of their own losses, Rosenberg wrote in his report. Banks and insurers mark down certain securities and derivatives to market prices in their earnings reports, avoiding losses on others unless they deem the declines to not be temporary and provisioning against loans as they go bad.
Fair Value
Bank lobbying groups today asked Congress and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to suspend a rule that forces companies to put a price on difficult-to-value assets such as subprime mortgages.
``We are suggesting that the SEC issue a temporary order to negate the negative impact'' of the so-called fair-value rule when the economy slumps, Scott Talbott, senior vice president of government affairs at the Washington-based Financial Services Roundtable, said in an e-mail.
Companies including American International Group Inc., the insurer that accepted $85 billion in a U.S. takeover, have said the rule by the Financial Accounting Standards Board requires them to record losses they don't expect to incur. The world's largest banks and brokers have reported more than $520 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses since last year.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jody Shenn in New York at jshenn@bloomberg.net.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

A Professor and a Banker Bury Old Dogma on Markets

Published: September 20, 2008

This article was reported by Peter Baker, Stephen Labaton and Eric Lipton and written by Mr. Baker.

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Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Henry M. Paulson Jr., left, and Ben S. Bernanke in July.

WASHINGTON — For the last year, as the nation’s economy lurched from crisis to crisis, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, had been warning Henry M. Paulson Jr., the Treasury secretary, that the worsening situation might ultimately force a sweeping federal intervention.

A longtime student of the Great Depression, Mr. Bernanke was acutely aware of what could happen without a decisive move. Finally, the moment that called for action arrived late Wednesday. Less than 24 hours after the Fed bailed out American International Group, the giant insurer, it was clear the turmoil gripping Wall Street was only growing worse and that ad hoc solutions were not working.

Talking into a speaker phone from his ornate office, Mr. Bernanke told Mr. Paulson that it was time to adopt a comprehensive strategy that Congress would have to approve. Mr. Paulson understood. Reluctant in recent days to send Congress a plan that lawmakers had warned had little chance of quick passage, he had worried that a rejection would only further shock the markets. But during two conference calls Wednesday night and Thursday morning, he agreed that they had no choice.

“It just happened dramatically,” Mr. Paulson said in an interview on Friday. “There was only one way that we could reassure the markets and deal with a very significant and broad-based freezing of the credit market. There was no political calculus. It was overwhelmingly obvious.”

Just like that, Mr. Bernanke, the reserved former Ivy League professor, and Mr. Paulson, the hard-charging former Wall Street deal maker, launched what would be the government’s largest economic rescue operation in modern times, one that rivals the Iraq war in cost and at the same time may redefine Washington’s role in the marketplace for years.

The plan to buy $700 billion in troubled assets with taxpayer money was shaped by two men who did not know each other until two years ago and did not travel in the same circles, but now find themselves brought together by history. If Mr. Bernanke is the intellectual force and Mr. Paulson the action man of this unlikely tandem, they have managed to create a nearly seamless partnership as they rush to stop the financial upheaval and keep the economy afloat.

Befitting their roles and personalities, Mr. Paulson has become the public face of their team — he plans to appear on four Sunday talk shows — while the less visible Mr. Bernanke provides the historical underpinnings for their strategy.

Along the way, they have cast aside the administration’s long-held views about regulation and government involvement in private business, even reversing decisions over the space of 24 hours and justifying them as practical solutions to dire threats.

“There are no atheists in foxholes and no ideologues in financial crises,” Mr. Bernanke told colleagues last week, according to one meeting participant.

The improvisational nature of their effort has turned President Bush and Congressional Democrats into virtual bystanders, sometimes uncertain about what comes next and left to wonder about the new power dynamics in the capital. Seemingly every time lawmakers tried to get a handle on what was happening and what role they might play with elections around the corner, Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke would show up again on Capitol Hill for another evening meeting with another surprise development.

The two men have been working early and working late, tracking Asian markets and fielding calls from their European counterparts, then reconnecting with each other by phone eight or nine times a day, talking so often that they speak in shorthand. Mr. Paulson has powered through the long days with a steady infusion of Diet Coke. Asked twice to testify by the Senate last week, he begged off.

“He told me he had like four hours of sleep,” said Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut and chairman of the Banking Committee. But there were limits to Mr. Dodd’s sympathy. “The public wants to know what’s going on,” he said he replied.

Mr. Bernanke (his drink: Diet Dr Pepper) has made a point of leaving the office by midnight to get at least some rest, but friends say the toll on him is clear as well. Alan S. Blinder, a longtime friend and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, recalled seeing Mr. Bernanke at a conference last month in Jackson Hole, Wyo. “He looked like he had the weight of the world on his shoulders,” Mr. Blinder said.

And that was before last week.

Mr. Bernanke took office in February 2006 and Mr. Paulson five months later, both Republicans and Bush appointees, yet arriving from starkly different places. Mr. Bernanke, 54, had managed the academic politics of the Princeton economics department, where he served as chairman, by developing a conciliator’s style. Mr. Paulson, 62, rose to the top of Goldman Sachs by pounding the phones, and the occasional table.

“Hank is just the most hyperactive, get-it-done kind of guy who’s always trying to get the problem solved and move on. He’s impatient to fix things,” said Allan B. Hubbard, a former national economic adviser to Mr. Bush. “Ben is much more low-key. He’s very thoughtful. He’s an incredible thinker, listens well, analyzes well and is not intimidated by anyone. It’s probably a great pair.”

While Mr. Bernanke talks in lofty terms and Mr. Paulson speaks in great bursts of Wall Street jock language, the new Washington odd couple bonded in part over baseball. The Treasury secretary is a Chicago Cubs fan and the Fed chairman is a Boston Red Sox fan who has adopted the Washington Nationals and shares season tickets with the White House chief of staff, Joshua B. Bolten

But neither Mr. Paulson nor Mr. Bernanke has been deeply involved in the political process before. As they try to navigate Washington together, they have surrounded themselves respectively with advisers drawn from Goldman and career professionals at the Fed.

Mr. Paulson initially declined to join the cabinet. He changed his mind only after extensive lobbying by Mr. Bolten, a former Goldman executive, and commitments by Mr. Bush to let him truly run economic policy, unlike his predecessors. The Hammer, as Mr. Paulson has been called since his days on the Dartmouth football squad, brought to Washington his characteristic intensity.

“He is a hurricane. He is used to living in a turbulent world,” said John H. Bryan Jr., a close friend and former chief executive of the Sara Lee Corporation. “He has lived in a world of deadlines, decisions and pressure-packed things.”

Mr. Paulson, a Christian Scientist, does not drink or smoke. Once, at a cocktail party where he was giving a speech, recalled Andrew M. Alper, a former Goldman colleague, Mr. Paulson accidentally took a gulp from a glass of vodka, thinking it was water. His face turned bright red and his eyes were watering for an hour. “He just kept going,” Mr. Alper said. “It did not slow him down.”

Mr. Bernanke has a more obscure nickname, Helicopter Ben, after a speech he gave in 2002 in which he talked about the Fed’s “helicopter drops” of emergency money to keep the system liquid. For Mr. Bernanke, the current crisis is the culmination of a lifetime of figuring how the system works from a theoretical viewpoint.

Mr. Bernanke made clear long ago that he realized he might someday be called on to act on his studies. Vincent R. Reinhart, a former Fed official, said Mr. Bernanke’s research into Japan’s financial crisis in the 1990s reinforced his view that the government had to be aggressive in intervening during market crises.

And at a party he had in 2002 to honor the 90th birthday of Milton Friedman, the famed economist, Mr. Bernanke, then a governor of the Federal Reserve, brought up the mistakes the nation made in the face of the Depression and promised not to repeat them. “We did it,” he said then. “We won’t do it again.”

Mr. Paulson, in the interview Friday, said that Mr. Bernanke had long warned that a moment might come like the one they saw last week.

“Going back a long time, maybe a year ago, Ben, as a world-class economist, said to me, ‘When you look at the housing bubble and the correction, if the price decline was significant enough,’ ” the only solution might be a large-scale government intervention, Mr. Paulson said. “He talked about what had happened when there had been other situations historically.”

Mr. Paulson said he agreed but hoped it would not come to that. “I knew he was right theoretically,” he said. “But I also had, and we both did, some hope that, with all the liquidity out there from investors, that after a certain decline that we would reach a bottom.”

He was also hearing as late as last Monday from senior Democratic and Republican lawmakers, including Steny H. Hoyer, the House majority leader, and Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the House Republican leader, that there was no chance Congress would adopt any legislation before it planned to leave town in September. Even Representative Barney Frank, a proponent of a greater role for the government in the market, said on Monday that the issue would have to be resolved by the next president and the new Congress next year.

By Tuesday, however, the troubles were only deepening. Lehman Brothers had declared bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch had agreed to be bought by Bank of America and A.I.G. was on the verge of collapse. Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke put together an $85 billion bailout of A.I.G. and presented it to Mr. Bush.

But the two warned the president that it might not be enough to stabilize the broader crisis. A senior administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, paraphrased their message to Mr. Bush this way: “There may still be problems after this, and if there are, we’ll come back to you.”

They did, two days later, after plunging stock prices and frozen credit markets made clear the case-by-case strategy was not working. Mr. Paulson had been talking with Mr. Bush by telephone throughout Wednesday and early Thursday. The decision to finally take a radical, systemwide step came after an endless stream of conference calls involving Fed, Treasury and Securities and Exchange Commission officials, one participant recalled, when Mr. Bernanke said: “We have got to go to Congress.” Mr. Paulson concurred.

On Thursday afternoon, the two men, along with Christopher Cox, the S.E.C. chairman, went to the White House to explain their plan. “The president said, ‘Let’s do it,’ ” an official said. “There was no hesitation.”

Within hours, Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke were in the office of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, briefing Congressional leaders on how bleak the situation was. Lawmakers were shaken but offered tentative support. Torn by conflicting imperatives to take action and to go home to campaign, they seemed alternately grateful and resentful of the new power couple in Washington. Some referred to “President Paulson” and others groused about an unelected central bank chairman doling out hundreds of billions of dollars.

Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke came under fire for being too aggressive and for not being aggressive enough. Senator Jim Bunning, Republican of Kentucky, said they were killing the free market. R. Glenn Hubbard, former chairman of Mr. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers, said they should have acted sooner.

“The opportunity to have taken bold action would obviously have been better had they done it months ago,” he said. “But better late than never.”

In the end, what left so many lawmakers and economists frustrated was the sense that no one had a better idea. So they waited for Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke to give them more details about what they wanted to do.