Showing posts with label lehman brothers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lehman brothers. Show all posts

Sunday, September 21, 2008

A Professor and a Banker Bury Old Dogma on Markets

Published: September 20, 2008

This article was reported by Peter Baker, Stephen Labaton and Eric Lipton and written by Mr. Baker.

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Henry M. Paulson Jr., left, and Ben S. Bernanke in July.

WASHINGTON — For the last year, as the nation’s economy lurched from crisis to crisis, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, had been warning Henry M. Paulson Jr., the Treasury secretary, that the worsening situation might ultimately force a sweeping federal intervention.

A longtime student of the Great Depression, Mr. Bernanke was acutely aware of what could happen without a decisive move. Finally, the moment that called for action arrived late Wednesday. Less than 24 hours after the Fed bailed out American International Group, the giant insurer, it was clear the turmoil gripping Wall Street was only growing worse and that ad hoc solutions were not working.

Talking into a speaker phone from his ornate office, Mr. Bernanke told Mr. Paulson that it was time to adopt a comprehensive strategy that Congress would have to approve. Mr. Paulson understood. Reluctant in recent days to send Congress a plan that lawmakers had warned had little chance of quick passage, he had worried that a rejection would only further shock the markets. But during two conference calls Wednesday night and Thursday morning, he agreed that they had no choice.

“It just happened dramatically,” Mr. Paulson said in an interview on Friday. “There was only one way that we could reassure the markets and deal with a very significant and broad-based freezing of the credit market. There was no political calculus. It was overwhelmingly obvious.”

Just like that, Mr. Bernanke, the reserved former Ivy League professor, and Mr. Paulson, the hard-charging former Wall Street deal maker, launched what would be the government’s largest economic rescue operation in modern times, one that rivals the Iraq war in cost and at the same time may redefine Washington’s role in the marketplace for years.

The plan to buy $700 billion in troubled assets with taxpayer money was shaped by two men who did not know each other until two years ago and did not travel in the same circles, but now find themselves brought together by history. If Mr. Bernanke is the intellectual force and Mr. Paulson the action man of this unlikely tandem, they have managed to create a nearly seamless partnership as they rush to stop the financial upheaval and keep the economy afloat.

Befitting their roles and personalities, Mr. Paulson has become the public face of their team — he plans to appear on four Sunday talk shows — while the less visible Mr. Bernanke provides the historical underpinnings for their strategy.

Along the way, they have cast aside the administration’s long-held views about regulation and government involvement in private business, even reversing decisions over the space of 24 hours and justifying them as practical solutions to dire threats.

“There are no atheists in foxholes and no ideologues in financial crises,” Mr. Bernanke told colleagues last week, according to one meeting participant.

The improvisational nature of their effort has turned President Bush and Congressional Democrats into virtual bystanders, sometimes uncertain about what comes next and left to wonder about the new power dynamics in the capital. Seemingly every time lawmakers tried to get a handle on what was happening and what role they might play with elections around the corner, Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke would show up again on Capitol Hill for another evening meeting with another surprise development.

The two men have been working early and working late, tracking Asian markets and fielding calls from their European counterparts, then reconnecting with each other by phone eight or nine times a day, talking so often that they speak in shorthand. Mr. Paulson has powered through the long days with a steady infusion of Diet Coke. Asked twice to testify by the Senate last week, he begged off.

“He told me he had like four hours of sleep,” said Senator Christopher J. Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut and chairman of the Banking Committee. But there were limits to Mr. Dodd’s sympathy. “The public wants to know what’s going on,” he said he replied.

Mr. Bernanke (his drink: Diet Dr Pepper) has made a point of leaving the office by midnight to get at least some rest, but friends say the toll on him is clear as well. Alan S. Blinder, a longtime friend and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, recalled seeing Mr. Bernanke at a conference last month in Jackson Hole, Wyo. “He looked like he had the weight of the world on his shoulders,” Mr. Blinder said.

And that was before last week.

Mr. Bernanke took office in February 2006 and Mr. Paulson five months later, both Republicans and Bush appointees, yet arriving from starkly different places. Mr. Bernanke, 54, had managed the academic politics of the Princeton economics department, where he served as chairman, by developing a conciliator’s style. Mr. Paulson, 62, rose to the top of Goldman Sachs by pounding the phones, and the occasional table.

“Hank is just the most hyperactive, get-it-done kind of guy who’s always trying to get the problem solved and move on. He’s impatient to fix things,” said Allan B. Hubbard, a former national economic adviser to Mr. Bush. “Ben is much more low-key. He’s very thoughtful. He’s an incredible thinker, listens well, analyzes well and is not intimidated by anyone. It’s probably a great pair.”

While Mr. Bernanke talks in lofty terms and Mr. Paulson speaks in great bursts of Wall Street jock language, the new Washington odd couple bonded in part over baseball. The Treasury secretary is a Chicago Cubs fan and the Fed chairman is a Boston Red Sox fan who has adopted the Washington Nationals and shares season tickets with the White House chief of staff, Joshua B. Bolten

But neither Mr. Paulson nor Mr. Bernanke has been deeply involved in the political process before. As they try to navigate Washington together, they have surrounded themselves respectively with advisers drawn from Goldman and career professionals at the Fed.

Mr. Paulson initially declined to join the cabinet. He changed his mind only after extensive lobbying by Mr. Bolten, a former Goldman executive, and commitments by Mr. Bush to let him truly run economic policy, unlike his predecessors. The Hammer, as Mr. Paulson has been called since his days on the Dartmouth football squad, brought to Washington his characteristic intensity.

“He is a hurricane. He is used to living in a turbulent world,” said John H. Bryan Jr., a close friend and former chief executive of the Sara Lee Corporation. “He has lived in a world of deadlines, decisions and pressure-packed things.”

Mr. Paulson, a Christian Scientist, does not drink or smoke. Once, at a cocktail party where he was giving a speech, recalled Andrew M. Alper, a former Goldman colleague, Mr. Paulson accidentally took a gulp from a glass of vodka, thinking it was water. His face turned bright red and his eyes were watering for an hour. “He just kept going,” Mr. Alper said. “It did not slow him down.”

Mr. Bernanke has a more obscure nickname, Helicopter Ben, after a speech he gave in 2002 in which he talked about the Fed’s “helicopter drops” of emergency money to keep the system liquid. For Mr. Bernanke, the current crisis is the culmination of a lifetime of figuring how the system works from a theoretical viewpoint.

Mr. Bernanke made clear long ago that he realized he might someday be called on to act on his studies. Vincent R. Reinhart, a former Fed official, said Mr. Bernanke’s research into Japan’s financial crisis in the 1990s reinforced his view that the government had to be aggressive in intervening during market crises.

And at a party he had in 2002 to honor the 90th birthday of Milton Friedman, the famed economist, Mr. Bernanke, then a governor of the Federal Reserve, brought up the mistakes the nation made in the face of the Depression and promised not to repeat them. “We did it,” he said then. “We won’t do it again.”

Mr. Paulson, in the interview Friday, said that Mr. Bernanke had long warned that a moment might come like the one they saw last week.

“Going back a long time, maybe a year ago, Ben, as a world-class economist, said to me, ‘When you look at the housing bubble and the correction, if the price decline was significant enough,’ ” the only solution might be a large-scale government intervention, Mr. Paulson said. “He talked about what had happened when there had been other situations historically.”

Mr. Paulson said he agreed but hoped it would not come to that. “I knew he was right theoretically,” he said. “But I also had, and we both did, some hope that, with all the liquidity out there from investors, that after a certain decline that we would reach a bottom.”

He was also hearing as late as last Monday from senior Democratic and Republican lawmakers, including Steny H. Hoyer, the House majority leader, and Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the House Republican leader, that there was no chance Congress would adopt any legislation before it planned to leave town in September. Even Representative Barney Frank, a proponent of a greater role for the government in the market, said on Monday that the issue would have to be resolved by the next president and the new Congress next year.

By Tuesday, however, the troubles were only deepening. Lehman Brothers had declared bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch had agreed to be bought by Bank of America and A.I.G. was on the verge of collapse. Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke put together an $85 billion bailout of A.I.G. and presented it to Mr. Bush.

But the two warned the president that it might not be enough to stabilize the broader crisis. A senior administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, paraphrased their message to Mr. Bush this way: “There may still be problems after this, and if there are, we’ll come back to you.”

They did, two days later, after plunging stock prices and frozen credit markets made clear the case-by-case strategy was not working. Mr. Paulson had been talking with Mr. Bush by telephone throughout Wednesday and early Thursday. The decision to finally take a radical, systemwide step came after an endless stream of conference calls involving Fed, Treasury and Securities and Exchange Commission officials, one participant recalled, when Mr. Bernanke said: “We have got to go to Congress.” Mr. Paulson concurred.

On Thursday afternoon, the two men, along with Christopher Cox, the S.E.C. chairman, went to the White House to explain their plan. “The president said, ‘Let’s do it,’ ” an official said. “There was no hesitation.”

Within hours, Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke were in the office of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, briefing Congressional leaders on how bleak the situation was. Lawmakers were shaken but offered tentative support. Torn by conflicting imperatives to take action and to go home to campaign, they seemed alternately grateful and resentful of the new power couple in Washington. Some referred to “President Paulson” and others groused about an unelected central bank chairman doling out hundreds of billions of dollars.

Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke came under fire for being too aggressive and for not being aggressive enough. Senator Jim Bunning, Republican of Kentucky, said they were killing the free market. R. Glenn Hubbard, former chairman of Mr. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers, said they should have acted sooner.

“The opportunity to have taken bold action would obviously have been better had they done it months ago,” he said. “But better late than never.”

In the end, what left so many lawmakers and economists frustrated was the sense that no one had a better idea. So they waited for Mr. Paulson and Mr. Bernanke to give them more details about what they wanted to do.

Monday, September 15, 2008

On Wall St. as on Main St., a Problem of Denial

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/business/16nocera.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&hp

Published: September 15, 2008

How can this be happening?

How can it even be possible that we wake up on a Monday morning to discover that Lehman Brothers, a firm founded in 1850, a firm that has survived the Great Depression and every market trauma before and since, is suddenly bankrupt? That Merrill Lynch, the “Thundering Herd,” is sold to Bank of America the same weekend?

Just months ago, Lehman assured investors that it had enough liquidity to weather the crisis, while Merrill raised some $15 billion over the last year to shore up its balance sheet. Now they’re both as good as gone.

Last week, it was Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that needed a government bailout. This week, it looks as though American International Group and Washington Mutual will be on the hot seat. We have actually reached the point where there are now only two independent investment banks left: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. It boggles the mind.

But it really shouldn’t. Because after you get past the mind-numbing complexity of the derivatives that are at the heart of the current crisis, what’s going on is something we are all familiar with: denial.

Indeed, it is not all that different from what is going on in neighborhoods all over the country. Just as homeowners took out big loans and stretched themselves on the assumption that their chief asset — their home — could only go up, so did Wall Street firms borrow tens of billions of dollars to make subprime mortgage bets on the assumption that they were a sure thing.

But housing prices did drop eventually. And when people tried to sell their homes in this newly depressed market, many of them had a hard time admitting that their home wasn’t worth what they had thought it was. Their judgment has been naturally clouded by their love for their house, how much money they put into it and how much more it was worth a year ago. And even when they did drop their selling price, it never quite matched the reality of the marketplace. They’ve been in denial.

That is exactly what is happening on Wall Street. Ever since the crisis took hold last summer, most of the big firms have been a day late and dollar short in admitting that their once triple-A rated mortgage-backed securities just weren’t worth very much. And, one by one, it is killing them.

Take Richard Fuld, the chief executive of Lehman Brothers. Last summer, as the credit crisis first gripped Wall Street, Mr. Fuld’s firm, which was fundamentally a bond-trading firm, concluded that the problems would be short-lived — and that those firms willing to take big risks would be the ones that would reap the big rewards once things calmed down. So Lehman doubled down on mortgage-backed derivatives — not unlike a Florida condo owner buying a second one to flip 18 months ago.

Big mistake. Ever since then, Lehman has had a terrible time admitting the magnitude of its mistake — or properly pricing its securities. As mortgage derivatives became increasingly toxic, they also became increasingly illiquid. So firms were left to set their own “mark-to-market” price. And just like so many homeowners, they kept pricing their securities higher than they should have.

Earlier this year, for instance, when the hedge fund manager David Einhorn was making his public case against Lehman (he now refuses to talk about the firm), he stressed his belief that Lehman was valuing its securities too high. He turned out to be exactly right.

Every time the market was roiled — especially after the Bear Stearns collapse — every firm on Wall Street had to re-mark their securities to reflect the new reality. That’s why you saw firms taking billion-dollar write-off after billion-dollar write-off, long after they thought they had taken care of the problem. And it is also why the write-offs will continue now that Lehman is bankrupt.

“Selling begets more selling,” said Sean Egan of the independent bond-rating firm Egan-Jones. And yet, even as they lowered the value of their mortgage-backed securities, firms like Lehman had still priced them too high. Back when he was talking publicly about Lehman, Mr. Einhorn used to cast Lehman’s mark-to-market pricing as an act of dishonesty. I tend to think it was more like wishful thinking. Either way, the result was the same.

A week ago, even as the government was bailing out Fannie and Freddie, Mr. Fuld went off to seek new capital — something Lehman desperately needed to shore up its decimated balance sheet — from the Korea Development Bank. Why did those talks break down? Because Mr. Fuld wanted more for Lehman than the Koreans thought it was worth. He simply couldn’t face the reality that his firm wasn’t worth what he thought it was.

Published: September 15, 2008

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Now look at his next-door neighbor, John Thain at Merrill Lynch. To be sure, Mr. Thain owned a better house — although Merrill Lynch also had billions in toxic securities, its bread-and-butter is its brokerage arm. It is fundamentally a gatherer of assets, not a bond-trader.

But there is another big difference between the firms. Unlike Mr. Fuld, who had run Lehman since 1993 and is the architect of the modern Lehman, Mr. Thain had been at Merrill Lynch just since December, when he was brought in to stanch the bleeding. He didn’t have the same pride of ownership in Merrill that Mr. Fuld had in Lehman. That is why he was willing to sell $31 billion worth of mortgage-backed derivatives for 22 cents on the dollar in late July — far lower than many firms had been pricing those securities.

And that is also why, seeing what had happened to Bear Stearns, Fannie and Freddie, and Lehman Brothers, he took the pre-emptive step of selling Merrill Lynch to Bank of America. In the process, he got $50 billion for Merrill’s shareholders. True, that was half of what Merrill was worth a year ago, and a once-proud name is about to be swallowed up by a commercial bank. But he also got $50 billion more than Mr. Fuld got for his shareholders — and being sold is a lot better than being liquidated.

It is unlikely that the worst is over. The market Monday dropped more than 500 points, and the government is now trying to keep A.I.G. from going the way of Lehman Brothers, even asking Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to make some $75 billion in loans available to the struggling insurance giant. And then there’s Washington Mutual. And then ... well, who knows where it will end?

Clearly the government is no longer willing to put the taxpayers’ money at risk to save firms that took on too much risk buying securities that they didn’t understand. As painful as it is to see Lehman employees lose their jobs, that is probably a good thing. That is the final parallel that exists between the housing market and Wall Street: the issue of moral hazard.

For over a year now, many Wall Streeters have complained about government efforts to forestall foreclosures, saying that it would create the expectation that everyone should be bailed out, and that consequently no one would learn important lessons about the dangers of taking more risk than they could handle. Besides, they added, the housing market was never going to improve until housing prices found their natural bottom. And that wouldn’t happen until the government stopped trying to prop up housing prices.

But in truth, you can say the same of Wall Street — it won’t learn any lessons, either, until firms that took foolhardy risks start to fail. One reason Lehman could not find a buyer over the weekend is because potential buyers were insisting on the same kind of taxpayer guarantees that the government had given JPMorgan when it bought Bear Stearns, or when it took over Fannie and Freddie. That’s the essence of moral hazard. When Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson refused to do so, the potential buyers went away.

With the government refusing to prop up Wall Street anymore, maybe now mortgage-backed derivatives will find their natural bottom. Something to look forward to, I guess.